The 2012 comeback: a little rowdiness & raucousness in Polish politics
One of my leading predictions for 2012 : a return of all-out rowdiness and disorder in Polish politics. Some might have even missed it.
Find that underwhelming considering how common rowdiness and disorder are in Polish politics? Let me add this little note: it will happen without the opposition really even having to say a single word on policy.
Poland’s government is three days into the new year and has already opened several fights within its own ranks while leaving the windows open for the neighbors to listen in. Uncharacteristic.
Poland’s Finance Ministry and Treasury Ministry are fighting in the press over the shape of a tax to be placed on copper and silver mining, the domain of listed miner and smelter KGHM. We weren’t surprised when KGHM leaked its study, highly critical of the project, to the press. We were, however, a bit surprised to see Treasury Minister slamming the bill in a press interview and see the government’s own legislative study office publicize its own stiff criticisms throughout the press. The Finance Ministry rose to the challenge and fired its shots back at everyone via the media. Fun for me, of course. Probably just noisy for most everyone else.
Poland’s central bank had to issue the government a back-off warning this week, rebuffing Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski for a radio interview in which Rostowski claimed that the door was open for the central bank to buy Polish government bonds if market conditions deteriorated. To date, we had considered cooperation between this government and this central bank to be model.
It’s unusual to say the least. This has often seemed like a very disciplined government. And when not disciplined, at least quiet. Nobody’s nerves get frayed listening to these guys. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is a master of defusing thorny issues and pointed questions and calmly addressing the underlying issues. And, to everyone’s continuing amusement, every election victory or concession speech he issues continues to focus on the value of Love in politics. (Yes, I wrote “Love in Politics.” Seriously, I’m not making this up)
It highlights the old question: has the relative peace and quiet within Polish government circles been a sign that this crowd is a new breed of Polish politician, something like responsible adults who can actually show discretion and appropriate behavior? Or a sign that that ambitions have been too low to generate any major conflicts?
That the infighting has begun to this degree over the copper and silver tax is a worrying sign. It affects one company from a little corner of Poland where the government party doesn’t have a single vote to lose. What will happen when they begin debating retirement age which affects the entire nation (admittedly gradually over time) or farmer health care premiums (admittedly small payments, but still the domain of the junior coalition partner) or uniform services pension programs?
If there is anything comforting to be said, it is that the fighting could be restricted almost exclusively to within the government. My next prediction for 2012:? That the main opposition party PiS will spend another year ignoring great opportunities to attack the government on policy and prefering to exorcise its own ghosts.
